A Strategic Decision Support System for Electric Utility Companies – an Analysis Tool for Projects Portfolio Management
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper describes an expert system (ES) based decision support system (DSS), which aids the user to select feasible projects among a strategic portfolio supplied by a dynamic simulator (DS). The ES incorporates the ALTMAN model for predicting financial distress. This model is utilized for aiding the user to find the most feasible values for the financialeconomic parameters, managing the projects portfolio and searching for the best results to the Businesses Strategic Unit. Basically, the proposed DSS is composed by the DS and the ES The former was developed by using the system dynamics paradigm, allowing the simulation of investment policies, taking into account the dynamic behavior of the involved variables and assuming that the decisions are taken continuously, leading to continuous actions. The latter guides the simulation in progress as well as supports the user in the investment analysis process. At the end of this paper a simulation of a four projects portfolio is presented and its results are discussed.
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